According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Donald Trump becoming US president poses a greater risk to the global economy than an armed conflict in the South China Sea or Britain leaving the European Union.
The report included his possible victory in November’s presidential election among its top 10 global risks.
The EIU said it does not expect the 69-year-old to beat his “most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton,” but a terrorist attack on US soil or sudden economic downturn could make his entry to the White House more likely.
Should that happen, Trump’s “hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war”, the EIU said.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond,”
The billionaire businessman has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the Republican party’s nomination after winning the primary polls in Florida, North Carolina and Illinois recently.
And this leads to pondering that why he won, why he has won the majority of the thirty states to vote so far, and why he will almost certainly be the Republican nominee.
By around two-to-one, Republican voters support Trump’s once-widely-ridiculed plan to introduce a temporary ban on Muslims entering the US, and at least half of these voters backed him today (with the other half split between multiple candidates).
Trump won because Republicans swung behind his exceptional ban on Muslims by a huge number of 64% of voters in favor of the same.
On the other hand, it was reported that he has received the equivalent of $1.9bn in free advertising as a result of the non-stop media coverage. The media coverage is many times more than that of his nearest rival, Senator Ted Cruz, who has earned the equivalent of $313m.
Recently, Brandon Staton, Founder of Humans of New York clearly wrote in an open letter to Trump that “I realize now that there is no correct time to oppose violence and prejudice. The time is always now. Because along with millions of Americans, I’ve come to realize that opposing you is no longer a political decision. It is a moral one.”
“Those of us who have been paying attention will not allow you to rebrand yourself. You are not a ‘unifier.’ You are not ‘presidential.’ You are not a ‘victim’ of the very anger that you’ve joyfully enflamed for months. You are a man who has encouraged prejudice and violence in the pursuit of personal power. And though your words will no doubt change over the next few months, you will always remain who you are,”
he ended with this note.
Overall a Trump victory was rated 12 on the EIU’s one to 25 scale (where 1=lowest risk) and labelled a “moderate probability, high impact” event.
I read. I write. A threat to humor, if one liners could kill. Twitter: @profylayush
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